Well, the '08 Presidential race is spooling up, sad as that may be. Several of my less politically astute friends have asked who is going to be the next commander-in-chief. I have no clue who it will be, but I can, with little doubt, predict who it will not be: a Republican.
There is a big difference between those of the voting populace who are more liberal, tending to vote Democrat and those who are more conservative tending to vote Republican. Those who are in the broad liberal camp (we are speaking in generalities here) think of their identity in terms of the group. They identify themselves with the “black community”, the UAW, feminists, homosexuals or whatever, there are thousands of groups. These voters will then vote according to the group. Lockstep, they will stand with their group and their party for what is best for all.
This sentiment is not lost on the consecrative side (Christian, pro-life, etc...) but it is subordinate to the individual. Conservative/Republican voters think more in terms of the individual, both of themselves and the candidate. A single character flaw, can completely disqualify a candidate where the other side of the isle would let it slide “for the good of the whole”. Think on it; how many times have you heard (if you have been paying attention) “Rudy Giuliani may be the best qualified candidate in the land, fiscally consecrative, tough on defense and all that, but he's pro-abortion and I will not vote for him.”?
The argument could be made that the conservative base will not throw away the White House just to stand on principle; but recent history might wreck that logic. The general voter might not be able to rattle off a list like your favorite feathered policy-wonk here, but in the back of their mind floats the residual stench of: President Bush allowing Mr. Piggy (Ted Kennedy) to write the education bill, the education bill bloating the Federal government even farther, the Homeland security department bloating government, not one single veto on spending bills, President Bush signing the McCain-Feingold Finance Reform bill (which violates the 1st amendment), the Republican Senate allowing our judges to rot in limbo, allowing John Bolton to not receive a true appointment as ambassador to the UN, the Kelo decision coming in the middle of an entirely Republican controlled Federal government and nothing being done except a symbolic vote, President Bush supporting RINO Arlen Specter over conservative Pat Toomey, failure to fix Medicare, Bloating Medicare with prescription drug payments, doing next to nothing to stop the flood of criminal aliens across the Mexican border, failure to clean up the tax code, and a substantial increase in pork barrel spending. And that was just off the top of my head.
You see, the conservatives that pushed the Republicans into power in 1994 and elected Bush in 2000 are not just following the party, as a liberal might be. Conservatives stand on issues and principals. Over the last six years, the Republicans have shone us no principals and have stood on little issues. President Bush himself has done more to increase the party than to guide the direction of the nation from a philosophical stand point.
Hugh Hewitt made a slogan famous during the last election: “Win the War, Confirm the judges, Cut the Taxes, Control the Spending, Secure the border” Conservative desires are rather simple, yet our elected officials cannot seem to meet them. Unless a Republican candidate comes out sounding like the second coming of Ronald Reagan, the conservatives will not vote for him. They are tired of half-measures and almost victories.
Looking that the candidates themselves, as the list now stands, does not leave much in the way of hope. Newt Gingrich sounds exactly like what the conservatives are looking for. But all the annalists say he carries too much baggage to ever win. So far Newt appears to agree as he refuses to make overtures toward actually running. John McCain may be the media darling and hold the “Center”, whoever they are, but conservatives will not vote for him. If McCain is the GOP candidate, the state of Georgia is likely to go to the Libertarian party (not that that is a bad thing, more parties would be good in my book). Rudy Giuliani is poling at the top now, but it will be very hard for him to win without voters who put value on the abortion debate, a huge section of the conservative movement. Mit Romney has a chance, but most of the voting conservatives are Christians who will not vote for a Morman.
As it stands now, in this time of turmoil, danger and a politically divided country, our next president will be a Democrat.
God help us.
